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Thе 70-th annivetsary of national research nuclear university “MEPhI”
ArticleName Analytical model of metals mining dynamics
ArticleAuthor Kharitonov V. V., Kabashev K. V.

National Research Nuclear University “MEPHI”, Moscow, Russia:

V. V. Kharitonov, Professor, Deputy Director of Economical and Analytical Institute, e-mail:
K. V. Kabashev, Post-Graduate Student


The analytical model of dynamics of metals mining from the subsoils allows to interrelate the resource of metals in the subsoils and initial rate of reserve development, along with annual metal production peak (midpoint) and resource reducing period. According to this model, the production rate of growth decreases as a linear function of time. Within the limits of made allowances of the model, the extraction maximum is reached during the extraction of a half of resources. There were compared the analytical calculations of metals mining dynamics and global production metals (aluminum, copper and uranium of Kazakhstan and Australia). The analysis of aluminium mining dynamics has been held since 1900. According to the model, taking into account that aluminum reserves made up 5–11 billion tones, the annual metal production peak will make up 50–100 million tones per year for the period of 2070–2090 (≈1.25–2.5 times more than in 2010). Analysis of copper mining dynamics has been also held since 1900. It is shown that with 1.6–3.2 billion tones of copper reserves, the annual metal production peak will make less than 20 million tones per year in 2084 (taking into account 16 billion tones per year in 2010). The analysis of uranium mining dynamics in Kazakhstan has been held since 1997. Kazakhstan uranium reserves made up 1.2–1.5 billion tones, and annual metal production peak will make up 30 million tones per year in 2027 (≈1.5 times more than in 2011). Analysis of Australian uranium mining dynamics has been held since 1976. Australian uranium reserves made up 1.4 billion tones and the annual metal production peak will make up 25 million tones per year in 2036 (2.5 times more than in 2011). This model can be useful to take the timely measures for working out the metals and methods of energy save.

keywords Metal reserves, Clarke numbers, dynamics, peak, rate, metal extraction, exhausting period

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