National University of Science and Technology “MISiS”, Moscow, Russia:

V. V. Brinza, Director of Scientific-research Technological Forecast Center, viachbrinza@mail.ru
M. R. Filonov, Pro-rector of Science anf Innovations
V. V. Loginova, Engineer
Yu. A. Anikin, Leading Expert

Developments in the field of thermoelectric materials are the essential component of the world scientific and technological progress. The purpose of this work is determination of regularities of formation of thematic publications about thermoelectric materials for a long period of time. Achieving this goal is aimed at supporting the adoption of effective solving in the scientific management on the main stages of the innovation cycle of advanced materials and guidelines for high-tech business. This work used such methodological tools as unites, methods and means of information retrieval, statistical methods, scientometric analysis and multiple scenario forecasting. This article proposed the universal procedure of obtaining information about the thematic streams of publications based on backcasting values of scientometric indicators. There were defined the cyclical dynamics publications in Russian and English languages in the field of thermoelectric materials, as well as for the past 60 years. On the basis of scientometric multi-scenario approach there was provided the information on the number of thematic publications in Russia until 2021. It is shown that by the end of this period, the number of these publications under the influence of different scenarios can vary from 115 to 350 per year, which is close to their maximum level reached in the 1970s. It should be noted that 90 thematic articles in Russian were published in 2014, according to the Russian Science Citation Index. Existence of sustainable trends in the medium term expand the knowledge base in the field of thermoelectric materials – this is an important argument for investors.

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